Bitcoin Bear Market Nearing Its End as Short-Term Holder Cost Drops to $69,000

The Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, with the cost basis for short-term holders falling below that of long-term holders. After a confirmation period of 3 days, this has triggered a signal indicating that the bear market may be nearing its end. This indicator excludes BTC held for more than 7 years when calculating the long-term holder cost basis, providing a more accurate reflection of the economically active long-term holdings. This signal does not imply that the bear market is over immediately or that the market bottom has been established; rather, it suggests that the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, making dollar-cost averaging strategies potentially more reasonable. If the short-term holder cost basis breaks back above the long-term holder cost basis, it can be viewed as a confirmation signal for the beginning of a bull market. Currently, the short-term holder cost basis has decreased from $112,500 to $69,000.

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